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Forecasting inflation using commodity price aggregates

Chen, Yu-chin; Turnovsky, Stephen J.; Zivot, Eric - In: Journal of Econometrics 183 (2014) 1, pp. 117-134

This paper shows that for five small commodity-exporting countries that have adopted inflation targeting monetary … policies, world commodity price aggregates have predictive power for their CPI and PPI inflation, particularly once possible …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011077608

Transition Issues for the European Monetary Union

Buiter, Willem H.; Sibert, Anne - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

If Stage Three of EMU starts on 1 January 1999, transition issues remain on two time scales. Until 1 July 2002, national currencies and the euro coexist as legal tender. We argue that intra-EMU currency risk exists in principle during that period, but that no EMU member can be forced out through...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114259

Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Performance

de Lima, Pedro - 2003

economies. The general findings for monetary policy are that, while it was costly to lower inflation (in terms of output and … inflation further from its already low level. While inflation was being lowered, in a number of cases central banks were also … evidence that these changes have helped in terms of better anchoring inflation expectations. At the same time there is no firm …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012444501

Escaping expectation traps: How much commitment is required?

Himmels, Christoph; Kirsanova, Tatiana - In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37 (2013) 3, pp. 649-665

We study the degree of precommitment that is required to eliminate multiplicity of policy equilibria, which arise if the policy maker acts under pure discretion. We apply a framework developed by Schaumburg and Tambalotti (2007) and Debertoli and Nunes (2010) to a standard New Keynesian model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608457

Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps

Amador, Manuel; Bianchi, Javier - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We show that if the central bank operates without commitment and faces constraints on its balance sheet, helicopter drops can be a useful stabilization tool during a liquidity trap. With commitment, even with balance sheet constraints, helicopter drops are irrelevant

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247967

On the Optimal Choice of a Monetary Policy Instrument

Atkeson, Andrew; Chari, Varadarajan; Kehoe, Patrick J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007

The optimal choice of a monetary policy instrument depends on how tight and transparent the available instruments are and on whether policymakers can commit to future policies. Tightness is always desirable; transparency is only if policymakers cannot commit. Interest rates, which can be made...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005714373

Quantitative Easing: A Rationale and Some Evidence from Japan

Wieland, Volker - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

. Deflation subsided by 2005. As soon as inflation appeared to stabilize near a rate of zero, the Bank of Japan rapidly reduced …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008548807

Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007-09

Reis, Ricardo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

paper reviews the determination of inflation under different policy regimes. The main danger for inflation from current …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468632

A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation

Aksoy, Yunus; Orphanides, Athanasios; Small, David; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

United States during the 1990s. Proponents of this approach recommend that, when inflation is moderate but still above the … long-run objective, the central bank should not move immediately to fight inflation, but rather wait for exogenous … circumstances — such as favourable supply shocks and unforeseen recessions — to deliver the desired reduction in inflation. While …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123544

Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero

Coenen, Günter; Orphanides, Athanasios; Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

inflation rates as low as 2%. The effects of the constraint are, however, non-linear with respect to the inflation target and … variability of output increases significantly and that of inflation also rises somewhat. Also, we show that the asymmetry of the … short of potential with lower inflation targets. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123657