Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and decision analysis, there is … considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate opinion. A method is proposed for obtaining and …. Response mode and payoff never interacted. Probability scores and their components were virtually identical for the two …

hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis … asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the calibration …, accuracy, and calibration influence others. …

(i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are … assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of …