walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior. …

statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of … least squares (PLS) regression to extract dynamic factors from the data set. Our forecasting analysis considers ten …

This paper describes the OECD’s new small global forecasting model for the three main OECD economic regions: the United … starting point to help animate the early stages of the OECD’s forecasting round. The model is essentially a demand-side model …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that topically-oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of … forecasting models using these indicators. In particular it develops dynamic factor models (DFM) which have the advantage of … and information technology indices. The comparison of the forecasting performance of the DFMs with more traditional bridge …

made in the first oil price shock of the 1970s. In response to the challenges encountered in forecasting in recent years … and the lessons learnt, the OECD and other international organisations have sought to improve their forecasting techniques …