This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …

We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. To …-term growth and longer-term inflation forecasts. We cannot reject weak efficiency of short-term growth and inflation forecasts. We …

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …<BR>Ce document évalue les projections de l'OCDE relatives à la croissance du PIB et à l'inflation durant la crise financière mondiale …

, however, show that the explanatory content of the SVAR measure with regard to the acceleration of inflation exceeds that of …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

due to nominal rigidities, drives the dynamics of inflation relative to expected inflation and lagged inflation. This … paper exploits the empirical success of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in explaining China's inflation dynamics with a new …, based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among inflation, money, and real output in China. The …

subject to considerable revision over time, this paper investigates the uncertainty surrounding projections and early outturn … potential GDP. Empirical results show that output gaps remain a significant influence on inflation, but their influence is now … weaker than in the past, and the usefulness of output gap estimates for real-time inflation projections is limited. Revisions …

We analyze the causal effects of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth by … inflation uncertainty diminishes growth rates, mainly at a high-inflation regime. Finally, real uncertainty has mixed effects on … average inflation, while the effect of nominal uncertainty is typically positive, especially so during inflationary periods …

inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap … clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one …

output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation … uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the … euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability, while data revisions seem …