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This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419
This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277004
Entwicklung in Europa ist dagegen mit Unsicherheiten behaftet. Deutschland wird allerdings wohl etwas rascher wachsen als die EU … im Durchschnitt. Dabei kommen die entscheidenden Impulse von der inländischen Verwendung. Am Arbeitsmarkt dürfte sich die …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743333
Fan charts were pioneered by the Bank of England and Riksbank and provide a visually appealing means to convey the uncertainty surrounding a forecast. This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts by which the degree of uncertainty is based on past...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011998487
Forecasts of GDP growth are typically over-optimistic for horizons beyond the current year, particularly because they fail to predict the occurrence or severity of future downturns. Macroeconomic forecasters have also long been under pressure to convey the uncertainty surrounding their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011823611
This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts of the major OECD economies as well as the aggregate OECD. The degree of uncertainty – reflecting the overall spread of the fan chart – is based on past forecast errors, but the skew – reflecting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011995776
This paper proposes a non-linear New Keynesian Phillips curve (Inv-L NK Phillips Curve) to explain the surge of inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing empirical evidence of statistically significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250214
The quality of the OECD's Economic Outlook growth projections was last evaluated in-house at the peak of the previous business cycle, calling for a reassessment. This paper analyses the OECD's annual GDP growth projections for the G7 countries over the period 1991-2006 and compares them with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012445042
The common approach to evaluating a model in the structural VAR literature is to compare the impulse responses from structural VARs run on the data to the theoretical impulse responses from the model. The Sims-Cogley-Nason approach instead compares the structural VARs run on the data to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005774407
The quality of the OECD's Economic Outlook growth projections was last evaluated in-house at the peak of the previous business cycle, calling for a reassessment. This paper analyses the OECD's annual GDP growth projections for the G7 countries over the period 1991-2006 and compares them with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005045656