This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...

Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird 2019 voraussichtlich nur um ein halbes Prozent wachsen. Unter Unsicherheiten leidet vor allem die Industrie wegen der globalen Handelskonflikte und des Brexits. Ob dies in einen gravierenden Abschwung münden wird, darüber gibt es Zweifel. Eine wachstumsorientierte...

Interval confidence and density forecasts, notably in the form of “fan charts”, are useful tools to describe the uncertainty inherent to any point forecast. However, the existing techniques suffer from several drawbacks. We propose a new method to represent uncertainty in realtime that is...

In April 2010 Bulgarian government announced an economic and social plan targeted on counteracting the swift economic downfall and hopefully, on helping the economic recovery. The way the plan was launched and the character of some of the measures created a lot of comments, rejection and...

This paper uses a two-step approach to characterize the evolution of US macroeconomic and financial variables during episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second, we assess the behavior of macroeconomic and...

This paper estimates the long-term effects of the global recession of 2008-2009 on output in 23 countries. I measure these effects by comparing current estimates of potential output from the OECD and IMF to the path that potential was following in 2007, according to estimates at the time. The...

This paper estimates the long-term effects of the global recession of 2008–2009 on output in 23 countries. I measure these effects by comparing current estimates of potential output from the OECD and IMF to the path that potential was following in 2007, according to estimates at the time....

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the...

Crises existed not only in the last decades. In each country fluctuations such as upswings or downturns can be observed in the economy. The serious economic crisis can take place when the extending long-lasting decline continues. In the situation when the crisis appears in the economy it is...

This paper examines the performance of alternative models for predicting turning points in the UK growth cycle. The models are based upon an interpretation of movements in the CSO's composite longer and shorter leading indicators. The difference between the models lies in the choice of method...