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Confidence calibration in a multiyear geopolitical forecasting competition

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Chapter 3 Forecast Evaluation

West, Kenneth D. - 2006

This chapter summarizes recent literature on asymptotic inference about forecasts. Both analytical and simulation based methods are discussed. The emphasis is on techniques applicable when the number of competing models is small. Techniques applicable when a large number of models is compared to...

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The forecast for scientific and technological development in Russia : how realistic is this mechanism of strategic planning?

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A note on uncertainty due to infectious diseases and output growth of the United States : a mixed-frequency forecasting experiment

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Investment potential forecast and strategies for its expansion : case of Ukraine

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