Using US data, we estimate optimal policy with a probability below one that the Fed reneges on its commitment ("limited credibility") versus discretionary policy where the Fed reneges on its commitment at all periods with a probability equal to one ("zero credibility"). The transmission...

This paper compares different implementations of monetary policy in a new-Keynesian setting. We can show that a shift from Ramsey optimal policy under short-term commitment (based on a negative feedback mechanism) to a Taylor rule (based on a positive feedback mechanism) corresponds to a Hopf...

Inflation targeting is a monetary-policy strategy characterized by an announced numerical inflation target, an implementation of monetary policy that gives a major role to an inflation forecast that has been called forecast targeting, and a high degree of transparency and accountability. It was...

Die Staatsanleihekäufe der EZB sind zu einem Fall für das Bundesverfassungsgericht geworden. Die Autoren des IW Köln argumentieren, dass das Outright-Monetary-Transactions-Programm noch innerhalb der Grenzen des EZB-Mandats liegt, aber wegen seiner Nachteile nur temporär eingesetzt werden...

Im September 2012 hatte EZB-Präsident Draghi angekündigt, dass die Europäische Zentralbank – wenn es notwendig ist – unbegrenzt Staatsanleihen von Krisenstaaten aufkauft, um die Refinanzierung ihrer Staatsschulden zu ermöglichen und ihre Zinsbelastung zu senken. Nach Auffassung des...

This article summarizes empirical research on the interaction between monetary policy and asset markets, and reviews our previous theoretical work that captures these interactions. We present a concise model in which monetary policy impacts the aggregate asset price, which in turn influences...

We study a new type of monetary-fiscal interaction in a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with a fiscal block. Due to household heterogeneity, the stock of public debt affects the natural interest rate, forcing the central bank to adapt its monetary policy rule to the fiscal stance to...

We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...

My lessons from six years of practical policy-making include (1) being clear about and not deviating from the mandate of flexible inflation targeting (price stability and the highest sustainable employment), including keeping average inflation over a longer period on target; (2) not adding...

This article provides an interpretative overview of the papers in this special issue of JIMF devoted to international aspects of the 2007–2009 financial crisis. It then goes on to provide additional empirical evidence of two sorts. The first documents the difference between the monetary...