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We show that a model where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements accounts well for the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s. Using a DSGE model, we then show that this learning process alters the impact of oil shocks, making it time-dependent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563170
Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186
This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419
We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. To …-term growth and longer-term inflation forecasts. We cannot reject weak efficiency of short-term growth and inflation forecasts. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822387
This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …<BR>Ce document évalue les projections de l'OCDE relatives à la croissance du PIB et à l'inflation durant la crise financière mondiale …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277004
, however, show that the explanatory content of the SVAR measure with regard to the acceleration of inflation exceeds that of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062995
This paper analyses the impact of oil price shocks on both the GDP growth and on inflation in the economy of Spain and … periods across the sample. Evidence of a diminishing effect of oil price shocks on GDP growth and on inflation is found from … GDP and between 1986 and 1994 and the 2000s for inflation. In the regions, the influence of oil price shocks on the GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011039528
prices: inflation and interest rates. Disagreement about GDP growth intensifies strongly during recessions. Disagreement … suggest that credible monetary policy contributes to anchoring of expectations about inflation and interest rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011009937
This paper examines the impact of different types of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy, using a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. The results indicate that when examining the effects of oil price shocks, it is important to account for the interaction between the oil market and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010939446
One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent monetary policy as opposed to oil price shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from the past. One explanation explored in Barsky and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016247