Real exchange rate misalignment measures deviations of actual real exchange rate from its long-run, or equilibrium, level. Policy makers and many researchers are interested in predicting and monitoring misalignment in the foreign exchange market, because, in many cases, it is closely related to...

In this paper we empirically investigate the relationship between capital flows and exchange rates in India based on a new index of real effective exchange rates for the Indian Rupiah. Instead of using consumer price indices we deflate exchange rates by MSCI asset price indices. The...

We study the behavior of real exchange rates in a two­country dynamic equilibrium model. In this model, consumers can only consume domestic goods but can invest costlessly in capital stocks of both countries. Nevertheless, transporting goods between the two countries is costly and, hence, the...

A recent literature has pointed at potential negative effects of exchange rate volatility on innovation. In this paper, we propose that there may be a direct effect as well as an indirect effect via export activity. We test these hypotheses for sectoral R&D intensities using OECD panel data for...

We propose an exchange rate model that can explain both the observed volatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rate movements and thus in some measure resolves Rogoff’s (1996) purchasing power parity puzzle. Our analysis reconciles the well-known difficulties in beating the...

In this Paper we test empirically the validity of the law of one price using data for five major bilateral US dollar exchange rates and nine goods sectors during the recent floating exchange rate regime since the early 1970s. Using threshold autoregressive models, we find strong evidence of...

This paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Brazil, from 1994 to 2003. Building on a standard theoretical model and based on the Johansen cointegration estimation, the main finding is that much of the long-run behavior of the REER can be explained by...

Real exchange rates appear to present a specific behaviour in the early phase of transition: they are largely unaffected by nominal exchange rate movements and exhibit trend appreciation. The model presented here describes the transition process as the emergence of two new (traded and non-traded...

The results of this paper complement the recent findings of real exchange rates as stationary processes. The standard procedure of applying a battery of unit root tests can be problematic since the tests are sensitive to the specifics of the time-series process. The novelty of the approach we...

This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds...