Real exchange rate misalignment measures deviations of actual real exchange rate from its long-run, or equilibrium, level. Policy makers and many researchers are interested in predicting and monitoring misalignment in the foreign exchange market, because, in many cases, it is closely related to...

(This abstract and the paper are in Turkish.) Ekonomik krizler; herhangi bir mal, hizmet, uretim faktoru veya doviz piyasasindaki fiyat ve/veya miktarlarda, kabul edilebilir bir degisme sinirinin otesinde gerceklesen siddetli dalgalanmalar olarak tanimlanabilir. Soz konusu krizlerin ortaya...

Ham petrol ithal fiyatlarindaki degismeler dolayisiyla akaryakit urunlerinin yurtici fiyatlarinda meydana gelen degismelerin Turkiye'deki olasi enflasyonist ve/veya deflasyonist etkileri, Kibritcioglu ve Kibritcioglu (1999) tarafindan kuramsal ve olgusal bilgiler isiginda sematik ve ampirik...

This paper surveys and examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in Turkey. Using a dynamic open economy aggregate supply - aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural vector-autoregressions, the authors consider real oil price, supply, balance of...

Using a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural VARs, we decompose inflation and output movements into those attributable to terms of trade, supply, balance-of-payments, fiscal, and monetary shocks. Empirical results show that terms of...

Turkey has experienced high and persistent inflation for more than twenty years. This chapter attempts firstly to survey the extremely broad literature on theories of inflation, in order to be able to classify, understand and discuss the dynamics of inflation more carefully. In this chapter, it...

Ham petrol fiyatlarindaki artislarin petrol ithalatcisi ulkelerdeki olasi enflasyonist etkileri, ozellikle 1970’li yillarda Dunya’da yasanan iki buyuk petrol krizinden bu yana tartisilir olmustur. Bir ham petrol ithalatcisi olan Turkiye’de de, enflasyonun onemli kaynaklarindan birinin ham...

Following the financial crises in November 2000 and February 2001, the Turkish government canceled the 2000-2002 disinflation and economic restructuring program on February 22, 2001, and introduced a new macroeconomic-policy program on April 14, 2001. According to this new program, the annual...

After experiencing high and persistent inflation for more than two decades, Turkey is entering a period of single-digit inflation again. Following a summary of the macroeconomic developments occurred since early 1970s, this paper attempts to survey the empirical literature both on the dynamics...