An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...

In this paper, we study the empirical relationship between credit funding sources and the financial vulnerability of the Colombian banking system. We propose a statistical model to measure and predict banking-fragility episodes associated with credit funding sources classified into retail...

Three methodologies of estimation of models with many predictors are implemented to forecast Colombian inflation. Two factor models, based on principal components, and partial least squares, as well as a Bayesian regression, known as Ridge regression are estimated. The methodologies are compared...

This document presents how to estimate and implement a structural VAR-X model under long run and impact identification restrictions. Estimation by bayesian and maximum likelihood methods is presented. Applications of the structural VAR-X for impulse response functions to structural shocks,...

Este documento analiza la relación existente entre la deuda externa pública y la inversiónprivada para Colombia entre 1994 y 2007, a partir del modelo de series de tiempo no linealesTAR. La estimación del modelo se realizó a través de los métodos MCMC y el enfoquebayesiano. Los resultados...

Este documento realiza una descripción de las medidas de dependencia consus principales ventajas y desventajas y presenta a la cópula como una estructura flexibleque permite caracterizar diferentes tipos de dependencia. Adicionalmente, introduce eluso de la cópula en la medici´on de riesgo...

Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a pesofor- peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to...

En este trabajo se analizan algunos aspectos de la regulación relacionada con el manejo del riesgo de mercado establecida por la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, donde se propone el valor en riesgo (VaR) como la medida para cuantificar este tipo de riesgo. No obstante, esta regulación...