I estimate a theoretically and statistically satisfying model to account for corporate profit represented by Net Rental Income (NRI) for one of the largest Real Estate Investment Trust companies (REIT) in the U.S. I claim that I have found an accurate method to forecasts the direction and dollar...

: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder of New York City – NYC (1797-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal...

Abstract: This paper continues a research born in 1993 as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the escalation of violence in Colombia; its objective is to create an econometric model capable of forecasting the path of terrorist murder under different policy options and helping the...

This paper presents the simulation results of the model of cyclical terrorist murder for Colombia (Gómez-Sorzano, 2005) on the purpose of doing sensitivity analysis to help the country in the design of a policy bringing sustainable peace before year 2019. The first part presents 11 scenarios...

Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder in the United States (1900-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal...

This paper belongs to my research program on violence and terrorism started in 1993, as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s. After 14 years of research, particularly after developing a model of...