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Commodity Price Volatility, Democracy and Economic Growth
Arezki, Rabah; Gylfason, Thorvaldur - CESifo - 2011
We use a new dataset on non-resource GDP to examine the impact of commodity price volatility on economic growth in a … panel of up to 158 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that commodity price volatility leads to a … result, we show that increased commodity price volatility leads to a statistically significant and quantitatively large …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009352227
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Industry Structure and Pricing over the Business Cycle
Spiegel, Yossi; Stahl, Konrad O. - CESifo - 2014
We consider the interaction between an incumbent firm and a potential entrant, and examine how this interaction is affected by demand fluctuations. Our model gives rise to procyclical entry, prices, and price-cost margins, although the average price in the market can be countercyclical if the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877829
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Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle
Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; Visschers, Ludo - CESifo - 2013
This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877858
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Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - CESifo - 2014
slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic … common factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions, we … show analytically that volatility is forward looking and that the output equation of a typical VAR estimated in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010757723
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Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries
Woitek, Ulrich - CESifo - 2004
The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765700
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Limited Commitment Models of the Labour Market
Thomas, Jonathan; Worrall, Tim - CESifo - 2007
We present an overview of models of long-term self-enforcing labor contracts in which risk sharing is the dominant motive for contractual solutions. A base model is developed which is sufficiently general to encompass the two-agent problem central to most of the literature, including variable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766123
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On the Modeling of the Income Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics
Heer, Burkhard - CESifo - 2007
Empirically, the income share is procyclical for the low-income groups and acyclical for the top 5%. We find that business cycle models should consider overlapping generations and elastic labor supply in order to replicate this finding.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181506
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Labor Contracts, Equal Treatment and Wage-Unemployment Dynamics
Snell, Andy; Thomas, Jonathan - CESifo - 2006
This paper analyses a model in which firms cannot pay discriminate based on year of entry to a firm, and develops an equilibrium model of wage dynamics and unemployment. The model is developed under the assumption of worker mobility, so that workers can costlessly quit jobs at any time. Firms on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405841
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A Competitive Model of Worker Replacement and Wage Rigidity
Snell, Andy; Thomas, Jonathan; Wang, Zhewei - CESifo - 2014
We adapt the models of Menzio and Moen (2010) and Snell and Thomas (2010) to consider a labour market in which firms can commit to wage contracts but cannot commit not to replace incumbent workers. Workers are risk averse, so that there exists an incentive for firms to smooth wages. Real wages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010737510
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When Arm's Length Is Too Far. Relationship Banking over the Business Cycle
Beck, Thorsten; Degryse, Hans; Haas, Ralph de; Horen, … - CESifo - 2014
Using a novel way to identify relationship and transaction banks, we study how banks’ lending techniques affect funding to SMEs over the business cycle. For 21 countries we link the lending techniques that banks use in the direct vicinity of firms to these firms’ credit constraints at two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010795340