We propose autocorrelation-robust asymptotic variances of the Brier score and Brier skill score, which are generally applicable in circumstances with weak serial correlation. An empirical application in macroeconomics underscores the importance of taking care of serial correlation. We find that...

The performance in finite samples is examined of inference obtained by variants of the Arellano-Bond and the Blundell-Bond GMM estimation techniques for single dynamic panel data models with possibly endogenous regressors and cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. By simulation the effects are...

In the course of history, a large number of politicians have been assassinated. Rational choice hypotheses are developed and tested using panel data covering more than 100 countries over a period of 20 years. Several strategies, in addition to security measures, are shown to significantly reduce...

Provided that the literature on the deterrent effect of capital punishment is overall inconclusive, the fact that individual authors persistently claim to have found solid evidence in one or the other direction raises two questions. Firstly, what are the causes for these different results? Do...

I present the following proposal: information revealed during non-cartel investigations by competition law enforcement authorities, such as evaluation of M&As or investigation of monopolization (dominance) conduct, should be directly used to investigate and prosecute cartels. Currently, in...

In 2007, the Wall Street Journal published an article claiming that each execution saves more than 70 lives. This example is used to show how easy it is, using simple or advanced econometric techniques, to produce results that do or do not support the deterrence hypothesis. Moreover, we also...

We first show three major disagreements among today’s leading economists: the minimum wage, the effects of large government debt and the politics of the European Central Bank. Using a prominent and highly relevant example, the possible deterrent effect of death penalty, we demonstrate how...

Lone mothers are overrepresented among poor people in many European countries. In 1998, in Norway, a welfare reform increased the amount of benefits and introduced working requirements. Using a quasi-experimental model, Mogstad and Pronzato (2012) find a positive effect of the reform on lone...

The paper first discusses the main sources of concern for people in the perspective of professional mobility abroad as they result from the analysis of the Eurobarometer survey, wave 75.1 of 2011. Second, it tests whether portability of social security within Europe is a determinant of intra-EU...

In this paper, we provide causal evidence that firms serve new markets which are geographically close to their prior export destinations with a higher probability than standard gravity models predict. We quantify the impact of this spatial pattern using a data set of Chi-nese firms which had...