Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...

Economically active people are either in gainful employment, are unemployed or self-employed. We are interested in the dynamics of the transitions between these states across the business cycle. It is generally perceived that employment or self-employment are absorbing states. However,...

This paper investigates to what extent the R&D behavior of manufacturing companies was influenced by the 2008/09 crisis. Based on a broad official data set for German manufacturing companies, only a few companies that engaged in R&D during 2008 gave it up in the following year. Some companies...

Die Perspektiven für die deutsche Konjunktur haben sich eingetrübt. Für den Prognosezeitraum ist nur eine schwache konjunkturelle Entwicklung zu erwarten. Geringere Exporte in den Euroraum und eine abgeschwächte Dynamik der Weltkonjunktur und damit einhergehend eine geringe Expansion der...

The German economy entered the year 2011 buoyantly. The upswing is expected to continue throughout 2011 with GDP increasing at an average rate of 2.7%. Both internal and external demand will drive the economy. In the course of the forecast horizon, however, economic activity will become less...

Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland ist mit hoher Dynamik in das Jahr 2011 gestartet. Vieles spricht derzeit dafür, dass das Jahr 2011 mit einer Zunahme des BIP von 2,7 % ein Jahr des Aufschwungs sein wird. Dabei wird sowohl die Binnen- als auch die Auslandsnachfrage die Konjunktur...