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-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the … for GDP forecasting although their ranking depends on the underlying transformation of monthly indicators from which the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008615361
We examine real business cycle convergence for 41 euro area regions and 48 US states. Results obtained by a panel model with spatial correlation indicate that the relevance of common business cycle factors is rather stable over the past two decades in the euro area and the US. Ongoing business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963818
" forecasting institutions in Germany. We test for a non-linear relation between forecast errors and macroeconomic fundamentals and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068945
unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial … differences in forecasting quality are found among forecasters. We argue that is not always advisable to listen to the majority of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069095
We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010632795
means of conditional moments of simulated bivariate standardized copula distributions. We conduct in-sample forecasting … on the basis of their one-step ahead forecasting performance. With regard to forecast unbiasedness and precision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010632797
-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps to substantially improve the forecast …-of-sample forecasting of the growth rates of flats' prices and rents for the next six months is done. It shows that in most cities both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010896203
This paper considers the issue of forecasting financial fragility of banks and insurances using a panel data set of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963890
even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … spatial dependence structure into regional forecasting models, especially, when long-term forecasts are made. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963925
subject to revisions. This makes them an excellent source of information for the macroeconomic forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008549317