Auffhammer, Maximilian; Steinhauser, Ralf - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, … - 2006
-of-sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state level forecasts versus forecasting the … aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically … improves forecasting performance under Root Mean Squared Forecast Error Loss. Based on the in-sample observations we attempt to …