This paper investigates the effect of aggregation and non-linearity in relation to television rating forecasts. Several linear models for aggregated and disaggregated television viewing have appeared in the literature. The current analysis extends this work using an empirical approach. We...

We compare three methods of estimating the duration, or half-life, of how well each method works with the data aggregated over different time intervals. In contrast with the existing theory on the, so called, data interval bias, our experiments are based upon realistic advertising schedules. Our...

This paper is aimed to provide an economic interpretation on the emergence and evolution of the specialised middlemen whose duty is to facilitate the transactions of goods and services in an economy. In a general equilibrium framework, the emergence and evolution of the specialised middlemen...

This article characterizes the conditions under which holdout (i.e. bargaining inefficiency) may, or may not be significant in a two-sided, one-buyer-many-seller model with complementarity. Our central result is that the severity of holdout (i.e. inefficiency) is critically dependent on three...

We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 530 yearly series, all supplied to us by tourism bodies or by academics from previous tourism forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented...

Age-sex-specific population forecasts are derived through stochastic population renewal using forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time series coefficients are used to model age-specific mortality and fertility rates. As detailed migration data are...

We provide a new approach to automatic business forecasting based on an extended range of exponential smoothing methods. Each method in our taxonomy of exponential smoothing methods can be shown to be equivalent to the forecasts obtained from a state space model. This allows (1) the easy...

Exponential smoothing, often used for sales forecasting in inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains the appropriate approach under more general...

The global linear trend with autocorrelated disturbances is a surprising omission from the M1 competition. This approach to forecasting is therefore evaluated using the 51 non-seasonal series from the competition. It is contrasted with a fully optimized version of Holts trend corrected...

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these...