In this note it is argued that the estimation error in Value-at-Risk predictors gives rise to underestimation of portfolio risk. We propose a simple correction and find in an empirical illustration that it is economically relevant.

In general, the properties of the conditional distribution of multiple period returns do not follow easily from the one-period data generating process. This renders computation of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for multiple period returns a non-trivial task. In this paper we consider some...

In the estimation of risk measures such as Value at Risk and Expected shortfall relatively short estimation windows are typically used rendering the estimation error a possibly non-negligible component. In this paper we build upon previous results for the Value at Risk and discuss how the...

The impact of news of the Moscow and New York stock market exchanges on the <p> returns and volatilities of the Baltic state stock market indices is studied using daily <p> return data for the period of 2000-2005. A nonlinear time series model that accounts <p> for asymmetries in the conditional mean and...</p></p></p>

In the French language, the word comptabiliteacute (accounting) first appeared in the middle of the eighteenth century. It was used in the Royal finances and its first meaning was that of accountability. Until the middle of the nineteenth century, or thereabouts, the uses of the word evolved...

One of the advantages to analyze the economic links between two countries on the basis of stock market data, rather than aggregate economic data published by national statistical offices, is that stock market data are readily available, allowing analysis in almost real time. We consider a...

This article applies a two-step conditional Bayesian approach to hedge fund risk. First, a mixture or-two normal distributions is estimated for a core asset; one distribution being identified as linked to a "quiet" regime and the other to a "hectic" regime. The conditional probabilities of each...

The link between income and subjective satisfaction with one’s financial situation is explored in this paper using a panel analysis of 4,000 individuals tracked through the course of the ‘Celtic Tiger’ boom period, 1994-2001. The impact of the level of individual and household income, the...

The link between income and subjective satisfaction with one’s financial situation is explored in this paper using a panel analysis of 4,000 individuals tracked through the course of the ‘Celtic Tiger’ boom period, 1994-2001. The impact of the level of individual and household income, the...