In general, the properties of the conditional distribution of multiple period returns do not follow easily from the one-period data generating process. This renders computation of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for multiple period returns a non-trivial task. In this paper we consider some...

In this note it is argued that the estimation error in Value-at-Risk predictors gives rise to underestimation of portfolio risk. We propose a simple correction and find in an empirical illustration that it is economically relevant.

In the estimation of risk measures such as Value at Risk and Expected shortfall relatively short estimation windows are typically used rendering the estimation error a possibly non-negligible component. In this paper we build upon previous results for the Value at Risk and discuss how the...

A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a comprehensive, economy-wide data framework of real accounts, typically representing the economy of a nation but also providing the link between the economy and the rest of the world in terms of trade flows. However, in order to have complete picture of the...

The dating of cyclical phenomena in economies, such as business cycles, is at the core of economic policy research. Moreover, policy decisions which are due to affect interacting economies should take into account the economies' connectedness and synchronicity. The cross-country analysis of...

The standard vector error correction (VEC) model assumes the iid normal distribution of disturbance term in the model. This paper extends this assumption to include GARCH process. We call this model as VEC-GARCH model. However as the number of parameters in a VEC-GARCH model is large, the...

Investigate how retail investors determine their stock trading through experience to achieve the desired portfolio returns. To examine how retail investors coordinate their expected returns and perceived risk. Verify how retail investors’ trade potentials augment transactions on the stock...

This paper evaluates if and how speculation affects the volatility of commodity futures: it distinguishes between short term and long term measures of speculation and investigates if the impact on volatility is different. Speculation is measured by means of four indexes: scalping, Working’s T,...

In a recent line of research the low interest-rate environment of the early to mid 2000s is viewed as an element that triggered increased risk-taking appetite of banks in search for yield. This paper uses approximately 7,000 annual observations on banks of the CEE countries over the period...