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Quantified beliefs and believed quantities

Samet, Dov - EconWPA - 1998

That people estimate quantities, or have beliefs about them, is a daily observable phenomenon. People also quantify their beliefs, at least in theory, by ascribing to them probability numbers. It is shown that quantified beliefs and estimations give rise to the same model, that of a type space,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407602

A language for the construction of preferences under uncertainty

LiCalzi, Marco - EconWPA - 2005

This paper studies a target-based procedure to rank lotteries that is normatively and observationally equivalent to the expected utility model. In view of this equivalence, the traditional utility-based language for decision making may be substituted with an alternative target-based language....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118565

The Pearson system of utility functions

LiCalzi, Marco; Sorato, Annamaria - EconWPA - 2003

This paper describes a parametric family of utility functions for decision analysis. The parameterization is obtained by embedding the HARA class in a four-parameter representation for the risk aversion function. The resulting utility functions have only four shapes: concave, convex, S-shaped,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118574

The Varieties of Subjectivism: Keynes and Hayek on Expectations

Butos, William N.; Koppl, Roger G. - EconWPA - 1995

issues of time and uncertainty in economics. The source of the difference between their economic ideas was the difference …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076652

A More Realistic Endogenous Time Preference Model and the Slump in Japan

Harashima, Taiji - EconWPA - 2004

This paper presents a more realistic endogenous time preference model, incorporating the property that impatience decreases as consumption increases. The model overcomes a serious drawback of the existing model, which needs the assumption of increasing impatience. The new model is applied to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076835

The Bad Government: A Source of Uncertainty and Business Fluctuations

Harashima, Taiji - EconWPA - 2004

Uncertainty represented by volatilities in equity markets has been observed to be time-variable and lead output … fluctuations. In the rational expectation framework, uncertainty with this nature needs exogenous variables with time … that supervisions and law enforcement that reduce cheatings in contracts is one of the ultimate sources of uncertainty. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077043

A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles

Fioretti, Guido - EconWPA - 2002

. Uniting Schumpeter's concern for innovation with Keynes' concern for uncertainty and expectations formation, this article … focuses on the behaviour of entrepreneurs confronting uncertainty caused by innovation. Entrepreneurs' behaviour is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077089

Empirical analysis on the real effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty: The case of Colombia

Ruiz, Isabel - EconWPA - 2005

This paper re-examines the effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty on real economic activity. The existent … literature has treated both issues as separate subject matters. It has emphasized either the issue of inflation uncertainty or … exchange rate uncertainty on economic growth or on different measures of economic activity. This paper attempts dealing with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125542

Stochastic programming in energy

Wallace, Stein W.; Fleten, Stein-Erik - EconWPA - 2002

We give the reader a tour of good energy optimization models that explicitly deal with uncertainty. The uncertainty …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125661

Seeking information: the role of information providers in the policy decision process.

Swank Otto H. - EconWPA - 2000

The consequences of many policies are complicated and difficult to foresee. Those who are capable of providing information to policy makers often have a vested interest in the outcomes. This gives them an incentive to distort information to manipulate policy decisions. In this article we argue...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125873