The new monetary policy implemented in Uruguay in July 2002, rests on the existence of a stable relationship between the intermediate monetary aggregate and the price level, particularly during rough times, such as financial crises (1982-83; 2001-02). This paper analyzes the stability of...

The paper explores the implications of means of payment substitutability and capital mobility on the properties of the money demand, using the Thomas (1985) stochastic dynamic optimising model, where the specific role of money is explicitly accounted for. Extending the model to a case in which...

This paper shows that the Mexican experience from 1945 to 2002 is, like the German hyperinflation period, a unique monetary ``natural experiment,'' where fundamental relationships, like money demand, PPP and the monetary model of exchange rate determination can be analyzed with unparalleled...

Temzelides and Williamson (2001) provides valuable contribution into the private money literature, however, as pointed out by Schreft (2001), while the model provides insight about historical experiences with private paper monies, it does not provide a clear insight on how a modern system of...

This paper studies subsampling hypothesis tests for panel data that are possibly nonstationary, and cross-sectionally correlated and cross-sectionally cointegrated. The tests include panel unit root and cointegration tests as special cases. The number of cross-sectional units in the panel data...

We propose a semi-parametric approach to investigate whether co-dependence across markets increase in periods of extreme returns. Given that returns on one market fall in the extreme tail of their own distribution, we compute the conditional probability that returns on another market will also...

This paper analyses empirically the relationship between money and output in Peru, based on an orthogonal decomposition of series by timescales obtained using wavelets, following Ramsey and Lampart (1998). Specifically, we propose the application of wavelet filtering to analyze cointegrating...

This article presents a non-Markovian regime switching model in which the regime states depend on the sign of an autoregressive latent variable. The magnitude of the latent variable indexes the `strength' of the state or how deeply the system is embedded in the current regime. The autoregressive...

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every...

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted under the assumption of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function optimal forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors should be serially uncorrelated at the single period horizon with...