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Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best?
Ca' Zorzi, Michele; Schnatz, Bernd - European Central Bank - 2007
for addressing the question from an empirical angle, searching for the indicator that best explains and helps forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530816
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Labour supply and incentives to work in Europe
Gómez Salvador, Ramón (contributor) - What explains the pattern of labour supply in Europe … - 2005
Labour Supply and Incentives to Work in Europe highlights recent developments in the labour supply in Europe and gives a detailed assessment of their link with economic policies and labour market institutions. Despite major changes in European labour supply during the past few decades, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011851054
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The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model
Angelini, Elena; Boissay, Frédéric; Ciccarelli, Matteo - European Central Bank - 2006
The paper presents the Dutch country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model (MCM) for the euro area. We show how a theoretical model is translated into an econometric specification and how this specification is in turn estimated and used in the projection exercises of the E(S)CB. The dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530683
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The central bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks
Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - European Central Bank - 2003
within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530801
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Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?
Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - European Central Bank - 2006
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a … novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 … financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. JEL …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530863
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Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography
Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - European Central Bank - 2006
countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530894
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DISAGREEMENT AMONG FORECASTERS IN G7 COUNTRIES
Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jirka - European Central Bank - 2009
Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expertforecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectionaldispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreementabout real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment)has a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866467
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Forecasting the world economy in the short-term
Jakaitiene, Audrone; Dées, Stephane - European Central Bank - 2009
. This paper proposes a number ofapproaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic vari-ables and aims …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866572
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The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages
Modugno, Michele; Nikolaou, Kleopatra - European Central Bank - 2009
This paper investigates whether information from foreign yield curves helps forecast domestic yieldcurves out …-of-sample. A nested methodology to forecast yield curves in domestic and internationalsettings is applied on three major countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866630
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Inflation perceptions and expectations in the euro area: the role of news
Badarinza, Cristian; Buchmann, Marco - European Central Bank - 2009
The aim of this study is to assess empirically to what extent the degree of heterogeneity of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations is driven by the flow of information related to current and future price developments in the euro area. We conduct the analysis both on an aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005049560