Showing 1 - 10 of 59
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008516222
distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686802
’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E32, E …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222279
Using business survey data on German manufacturing firms, this paper provides tests for hypotheses formulated in capital market imperfection theories that predict distributional effects in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Effects of monetary policy shocks on the business conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344925
show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures. JEL Classification: C22, E31 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816199
This paper investigates both cross-sectional asymmetry (related to bank-specific characteristics like size and liquidity) and asymmetries over time (potentially related to the overall state of the economy) in Austrian bank lending reaction to monetary policy. The first type of asymmetry is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530769
We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear "Hysteresis" as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is potentially a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530981
A financial stress index for the United States is introduced – an index that was used in real time by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board to monitor the financial crisis of 2008-9 – and the interaction with real activity, inflation and monetary policy is demonstrated using a richly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067270
Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expertforecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectionaldispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreementabout real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment)has a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866467
Forecasting the world economy is a di¢ cult task given the complex interre-lationships within and across countries …, …rst, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms offorecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … forecasting di-rectly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based onthe aggregation of country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866572