In this paper we argue that both statistics and economic theory-based evidence largely indicate the absence of long run relationships between the real output and the most relevant monetary indicator for the U.K. and the U.S, short term interest rates. These findings are not only a full sample...

JEL Classification: E52, E61, E31, E42, E43

This paper first shows that the forecast error incurred when assuming that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target announced by the central bank is typically at least as small and often smaller than forecast errors of model-based and published inflation forecasts. It then shows...

JEL Classification: E52