reflect contemporaneous information about bank riskin the United States and in Europe.2 In our study, we firstexamine the …

Forecasting the world economy is a di¢ cult task given the complex interre-lationships within and across countries …, …rst, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms offorecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … forecasting di-rectly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based onthe aggregation of country …

and strengthen the case for a policy strategy that takes into account several sources of information. We find that …

forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset … selection on the empirical performance of factor models. First, spectral analysis is used to assess the information content for … that incorporating survey and external trade information improves the forecast of manufacturing production. They also …

-variate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the government deficit, revenue and expenditure in order to assess its information … content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and … quarterly national accounts fiscal data, but also incorporate monthly information taken from the cash accounts of the …

best approach is to take an inclusive approach, using a variety of methods and information. JEL Classification: E43, E44, E …

forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor …. For most of the components, we report that factor models yield lower forecasting errors than a simple AR process or an … improvements in terms of forecasting accuracy are found for more volatile periods, such as the recent financial crisis. However …