Similar Search Results

Forecasting the world economy in the short-term

Jakaitiene, Audrone; Dées, Stephane - European Central Bank - 2009

. This paper proposes a number ofapproaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic vari-ables and aims …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866572

The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model

Angelini, Elena; Boissay, Frédéric; Ciccarelli, Matteo - European Central Bank - 2006

The paper presents the Dutch country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model (MCM) for the euro area. We show how a theoretical model is translated into an econometric specification and how this specification is in turn estimated and used in the projection exercises of the E(S)CB. The dynamic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530683

The central bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - European Central Bank - 2003

within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530801

Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best?

Ca' Zorzi, Michele; Schnatz, Bernd - European Central Bank - 2007

for addressing the question from an empirical angle, searching for the indicator that best explains and helps forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530816

Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - European Central Bank - 2006

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a … novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 … financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. JEL …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530863

Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography

Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - European Central Bank - 2006

countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530894

DISAGREEMENT AMONG FORECASTERS IN G7 COUNTRIES

Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jirka - European Central Bank - 2009

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expertforecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectionaldispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreementabout real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment)has a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866467

The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages

Modugno, Michele; Nikolaou, Kleopatra - European Central Bank - 2009

This paper investigates whether information from foreign yield curves helps forecast domestic yieldcurves out …-of-sample. A nested methodology to forecast yield curves in domestic and internationalsettings is applied on three major countries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866630

Can non-linear real shocks explain the persistence of PPP exchange rate disequilibria?

Peltonen, Tuomas A.; Popescu, Adina; Sager, Michael - European Central Bank - 2009

A core stylized fact of the empirical exchange rate literature is that half-life deviationsof equilibrium real exchange rates from levels implied by Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) are very persistent. Empirical efforts to explain this persistence typicallyproceed along two distinct paths,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866489

Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro

Fratzscher, Marcel; Stracca, Livio - European Central Bank - 2009

There is a broad consensus that the quality of the political system and its institutionsare fundamental for a country’s prosperity. The paper focuses on political events inItaly over the past 35 years and asks whether the adoption of the euro in 1999 hashelped insulate Italy’s financial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866519