Showing 1 - 10 of 410
Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expertforecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectionaldispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreementabout real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment)has a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866467
This paper analyses how country-specific institutional quality shapes the impact of monetary policy on downside risks to GDP growth in the euro area. Using identified highfrequency shocks in a growth-at-risk framework, we show that monetary policy has a higher impact on downside risks in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015321121
Trust in the central bank is an essential ingredient for a successful conduct of monetary policy. However, for many central banks trust has recently declined, for instance in the wake of the post-pandemic inflation surge, due to large errors in central banks' inflation forecasts, or given...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015322401
inflation expectations in the two currency areas before and during the crisis. We find a somewhat stronger anchoring of … inflation expectations in the euro area than in the United States. During the crisis, the degree of anchoring of inflation … expectations did not change in the euro area, but it decreased to some extent in the United States. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301859
expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only for very short maturities. We argue that this is partly due to the ability … expectations about short yields can be exploited to improve the accuracy of yield curve forecasts given by a base model. We do so … by employing a flexible projection method that anchors the model forecasts to the survey expectations in segments of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015302483
We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective … turns out to be particularly large for moderate inflation expectations. We find significant heterogeneity in the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015320536
the model. While the original version of ECB-BASE features VAR-based expectations, we examine two alternative versions … either with full model-consistent expectations or with hybrid expectations. The paper provides a didactic exposition of the …-based to model-consistent expectations would limit the pandemic induced macroeconomic volatility but would exacerbate the price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015275222
The world recently experienced several rare events with disastrous consequences: the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the Fukushima nuclear accident. These events have in common that key decision-makers were unprepared for them, which aggravated these events. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015298419
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301892
We consider a simple extension of the basic new-Keynesian setup in which we relaxthe assumption of frictionless financial markets. In our economy, asymmetricinformation and default risk lead banks to optimally charge a lending rate above therisk-free rate. Our contribution is threefold. First,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866631