This paper contributes to the literature on the properties of money and creditindicators for detecting asset price misalignments. After a review of the evidence inthe literature on this issue, the paper discusses the approaches that can be consideredto detect asset price busts. Considering a...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expertforecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectionaldispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreementabout real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment)has a...

Forecasting the world economy is a di¢ cult task given the complex interre-lationships within and across countries. This paper proposes a number ofapproaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic vari-ables and aims, …rst, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms...

This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing models in a standard Bayesian VAR to analyse the size...

The main objective of this paper is to study whether the introduction of the euro hadan impact on the degree of integration of European Government bond markets. Weadopt the CAPM-based model of Bekaert and Harvey (1995) to compare, from thebeginning of Monetary Union until June 2008, the...

This paper estimates the wealth effects on consumption in the euro area as a whole. Ishow that: (i) financial wealth effects are relatively large and statistically significant;(ii) housing wealth effects are virtually nil and not significant; (iii) consumptiongrowth exhibits strong persistence...

We consider a simple extension of the basic new-Keynesian setup in which we relaxthe assumption of frictionless financial markets. In our economy, asymmetricinformation and default risk lead banks to optimally charge a lending rate above therisk-free rate. Our contribution is threefold. First,...

The paper provides an analysis of the euro area money and bond markets and their infrastructure since the introduction of the euro. Significant development in terms of integration took place in both markets in general to a various degree for the different segments. However, there remain room for...

This paper presents the methodological and statistical framework for macro-prudential analysis of the financial condition of the EU banking sector that has been adopted by the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). The framework is also a central component of broader financial stability...

This paper investigates whether information from foreign yield curves helps forecast domestic yieldcurves out-of-sample. A nested methodology to forecast yield curves in domestic and internationalsettings is applied on three major countries (the US, Germany and the UK). This novel methodologyis...