In this note it is argued that the estimation error in Value-at-Risk predictors gives rise to underestimation of portfolio risk. We propose a simple correction and find in an empirical illustration that it is economically relevant.

In general, the properties of the conditional distribution of multiple period returns do not follow easily from the one-period data generating process. This renders computation of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for multiple period returns a non-trivial task. In this paper we consider some...

In the estimation of risk measures such as Value at Risk and Expected shortfall relatively short estimation windows are typically used rendering the estimation error a possibly non-negligible component. In this paper we build upon previous results for the Value at Risk and discuss how the...

Measures of the value of public investments are critical inputs into the policy process, and aggregate production and cost functions have become the dominant methods of evaluating these benefits. This paper examines the limitations of these approaches in light of applied production and spatial...

Payday loans are widely condemned as a “predatory debt trap.” We test that claim by researching how households in Georgia and North Carolina have fared since those states banned payday loans in May 2004 and December 2005. Compared with households in all other states, households in Georgia...

The impact of news of the Moscow and New York stock market exchanges on the <p> returns and volatilities of the Baltic state stock market indices is studied using daily <p> return data for the period of 2000-2005. A nonlinear time series model that accounts <p> for asymmetries in the conditional mean and...</p></p></p>

Remarks at Queens Chamber of Commerce and Queens Economic Development Corporation, Flushing, New York City.

Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.