This article develops time-series models to represent three alternative, potential monetary policy regimes as monetary policy returns to normal. The first regime is a return to the high and volatile inflation rate of the 1970s. The second regime, the one that most Federal Reserve officials and...

Foreign direct investment (FDI) began to flow into China with advent of reforms in 1978. Following a period of relatively slow growth, FDI inflows to China picked up after 1990, as China surpassed every other nation but the United States in attracting foreign investment. In particular, coastal...

This note demonstrates why regression coefficients and their statistical significance differ across degrees of data aggregation. Given the frequent use of aggregated data to explain individual behavior, data aggregation can result in misleading conclusions regarding the economic behavior of...

This paper examines the performance of the U.S. commercial banking industry over 1984-2002. Rather than measuring performance relative to the unknown (and difficult-to-estimate) boundary of the production set, performance for a given bank is measured relative to expected maximum output among m...

This paper examines the effect of endogenous innovation in a North-North model of the product cycle. Innovation is a dynamic process that requires labor to b employed in research and development for innovation to occur. Technology is transferred both within and across countries. The results show...

This essay examines the role of data and program-code archives in making economic research "replicable." Replication of published results is recognized as an essential part of the scientific method. Yet, historically, both the "demand for" and "supply of" replicable results in economics has been...

This paper employs the Hopf bifurcation theorem to prove the existence of complicated equilibrium trajectories under least squares learning in a standard version of the overlapping generations model. The periodic and quasiperiodic learning equilibria exist when the locally unique perfect...

We examine the markets for one-month LIBOR futures contracts and options on those futures for a year-end price effect consistent with the previously identified year-end rate increase in one-month LIBOR. The cash market rate increase appears in forward rates and derivative prices, which allows...

Presented at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Washington D.C.

We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.