"A pair of simple modifications to the Kalman filter recursions makes possible the filtering of models in which one or more state variables is truncated normal. Such recursions are broadly applicable to macroeconometric models that have one or more probit-type equation, such as vector...

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change. Contrary to previous analysis based on classical point estimates, this approach provides a straightforward measure of estimation uncertainty for the counterfactual quantity of interest. We apply the...

Presented at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Washington D.C.

We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.

Genetic algorithms have been used by economists to model the process by which a population of heterogeneous agents learn how to optimize a given objective. However, most general equilibrium models in use today presume that agents already know how to optimize. If agents face any uncertainty, it...

This paper examines the effect of endogenous innovation in a North-North model of the product cycle. Innovation is a dynamic process that requires labor to b employed in research and development for innovation to occur. Technology is transferred both within and across countries. The results show...

This essay examines the role of data and program-code archives in making economic research "replicable." Replication of published results is recognized as an essential part of the scientific method. Yet, historically, both the "demand for" and "supply of" replicable results in economics has been...

This paper employs the Hopf bifurcation theorem to prove the existence of complicated equilibrium trajectories under least squares learning in a standard version of the overlapping generations model. The periodic and quasiperiodic learning equilibria exist when the locally unique perfect...