We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper proposes an original and uni ed toolbox to evaluate nancial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWS). It presents four main advantages. First, it is a model free method which can be used to asses the forecasts issued from di erent EWS (probit, logit, markov switching models, or combinations...

Systematic and multifactor risk models are revisited via methods which were already successfully developed in signal processing and in automatic control. The results, which bypass the usual criticisms on those risk modeling, are illustrated by several successful computer experiments.

The Swiss schooling system is characterized by early tracking of pupils into di erent types of education, which suggests that the impact of parental background may a ect transitions at a relatively young age which condition the future transitions of their children as well as their nal...

Longtemps négligées et jamais vraiment traitées, les questions budgétaires figurent parmi les dossiers les plus sensibles de la construction européenne. La situation budgétaire actuelle apparaît assez atypique ce qui soulève de nombreuses questions et incertitudes pour l'avenir....

Recent changes in environmental legislation have focused company thinking on business practices, particularly concerning the importance of integrating environmental concerns like outsourcing and procurement in supply chain networks. Supply chain partners are becoming progressively more...

L'adoption de la démarche Supply Chain Management (SCM), centrée sur la logistique, apparaît comme un outil de performance pour la firme, puisque son ambition affichée est de répondre au triple objectif d'amélioration des niveaux de service, de réduction des coûts et de création de...