In the estimation of risk measures such as Value at Risk and Expected shortfall relatively short estimation windows are typically used rendering the estimation error a possibly non-negligible component. In this paper we build upon previous results for the Value at Risk and discuss how the...

In general, the properties of the conditional distribution of multiple period returns do not follow easily from the one-period data generating process. This renders computation of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for multiple period returns a non-trivial task. In this paper we consider some...

In this note it is argued that the estimation error in Value-at-Risk predictors gives rise to underestimation of portfolio risk. We propose a simple correction and find in an empirical illustration that it is economically relevant.

This thesis comprises four papers concerning risk prediction. Paper [I] suggests a nonlinear and multivariate time series model framework that enables the study of simultaneity in returns and in volatilities, as well as asymmetric effects arising from shocks. Using daily data 2000-2006 for the...

The impact of news of the Moscow and New York stock market exchanges on the <p> returns and volatilities of the Baltic state stock market indices is studied using daily <p> return data for the period of 2000-2005. A nonlinear time series model that accounts <p> for asymmetries in the conditional mean and...</p></p></p>

This paper studies the impact of news announcements on trade durations in stocks on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. The news are categorized into four groups and the impact on the time between transactions is studied. Times before, during and after the news release are considered. Econometrically,...

I was born in Chicago in 1927, the only child of Morris and Mildred Markowitz who owned a small grocery store. We lived in a nice apartment, always had enough to eat, and I had my own room. I never was aware of the Great Depression.

Prize Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, December 7, 1990.

I was born in Boston, Massachusetts on May 16, 1923, the only child of Joel and Sylvia Miller. My father, an attorney, was a graduate of Harvard University (A.B. 1916) and in that one respect, at least, I followed in his footsteps, entering Harvard in 1940 and graduating in 1943 (A.B., magna cum...

Interview with Professor William Sharpe at the 1st Meeting of Laureates in Economic Sciences in Lindau, Germany, September 1-4, 2004. Interviewer is freelance journalist Marika Griehsel.