Showing 1 - 10 of 1,053
Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400699
adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic model, using European Union … credibility, and that a positive inflation target, as opposed to zero inflation, leads to higher and less volatile output. These … countries supports country-specific flexible inflation targeting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400852
Multilateral Consultations are a new tool of multilateral surveillance for the IMF, designed to foster action-oriented debate and policy actions on a problem of systemic or regional importance. The first multilateral consultation focused on facilitating the resolution of global imbalances while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014409833
To estimate the New Keynesian model, we use four key macroeconomic series for Thailand. The priors are chosen to reflect general considerations of the appropriate model dynamics and our judgment about the Thai economy. The model is solved initially so that the baseline forecast replicates staff...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242710
The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402644
This paper presents an econometric model of U.S. current account transactions. The model is used to analyze the factors behind the deterioration in the U.S. external position during the 1980s and to examine the sensitivity of the U.S. current account balance to changes in factors which are its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396470
This paper considers the demand for various monetary aggregates with a view to assessing their potential roles as intermediate variables for monetary policy. Illustrative estimates using a generalized autoregressive distributed lag model are presented. For M1, the results support an “error...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396094
Supporting Studies for the World Economic Outlook, prepared by IMF staff, provide a more detailed analysis of issues recently covered in the main pubication. The current edition includes studies of globalization and growth, the future of the international financial system, currency crises,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404467
sub-Saharan African countries on the relative importance of fiscal and monetary determinants of inflation. Based on the … dynamic response of inflation to different shocks, including nominal public debt, results show that a number of SSA countries … of inflation variability, as predicted by the fiscal theory of the price level …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401393
This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies … - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant … short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396909