This study shows that in Mexico there is a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and capital inflows, the external terms of trade, and productivity in the manufacturing sector. A once-and-for-all unit increase in the ratio of quarterly capital inflow to quarterly (annualized) GDP...

The staff report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation on Botswana highlights economic developments and monetary and exchange rate policy. Botswana’s growth has been fueled by continued increases in diamond production; and real diamond output is projected to level off, and then decline...

The staff report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights the Russian Federation’s long-term perspective, economic developments, and macroeconomic policies. Russia’s economic growth remains robust. High oil prices and sound fiscal policy underlie Russia’s long spell...

This paper shows that recent manifestations of sudden stops (SSs) in international capital flows have striking parallels in the early financial globalization era preceding World War I. All main capital-importing countries then faced episodic capital flow reversals averaging some 5 percent of GDP...

The Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises of the mid- and late 1990s have renewed interest among policymakers in the determinants and effects of private capital inflows. This paper analyzes whether policies can affect the composition of capital inflows and whether different compositions aggravate...

This paper reviews economic stabilization and growth in Portugal during the 1970s. Following a decade of rapid growth with external equilibrium, the Portuguese economy in the early 1970s suffered a series of major shocks. The paper highlights that the problem of managing economic growth with a...

This paper investigates the contagion from Russia to Brazil in late 1998 under two dimensions— players involved and the timing of events. The data does not seem to reflect a compensatory liquidation of assets story by international institutional investors. It does contribute, however, to the...

This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review for Peru and Inflation Consultation Under the Stand-By Arrangement. All performance criteria for end-December 2007 and end-March 2008 were observed, but inflation in March exceeded the upper limit of the program’s consultation band...

To estimate the New Keynesian model, we use four key macroeconomic series for Thailand. The priors are chosen to reflect general considerations of the appropriate model dynamics and our judgment about the Thai economy. The model is solved initially so that the baseline forecast replicates staff...

This Selected Issues paper for Peru explains growth and reform in the country post-1990. As half of the population in Peru still lives below the poverty line, further research should consider how the link between average income improvements and poverty reduction can be strengthened. Although the...