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A growing literature uses now widely-available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models … show how expectations data have been used to relax strong assumptions about beliefs and outline how they can be used in … of expectations data in the estimation of structural models. We conclude by noting directions for future research …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210122
otherwise well-informed about inflation and asset returns. Consequently, whereas exogenous shifts in inflation expectations do … not impact return expectations, information on past returns during periods of high inflation leads to negative updating … about the perceived stock-return impact of inflation, which feeds into return expectations and subsequent actual trading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544748
Financial ties between drug companies and medical researchers are thought to bias studies published in medical journals. To enable readers to account for such bias, most medical journals require authors to disclose potential conflicts of interest. We examine whether disclosure reduces article...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226124
We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372429
To understand a price boom, it is helpful to take account of: (1) observable indicators of changes in ex ante risk tolerance, (2) what information exists and when, and (3) the incentives lenders face. This paper takes such an approach to the Florida land boom of the mid-1920s, the U.S.' first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226111
the 2000s boom was plausibly driven by exuberant expectations, the boom of the 2020s more likely resulted from a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247934
Using surveys of firms around the world, we review existing evidence on how firms form their macroeconomic expectations …-run and long-run inflation expectations jointly and by similar amounts. Fourth, firms in economies with a history of low and … environments. Fifth, firms form expectations about inflation and the real economy jointly, but the way in which they do can differ …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210070
The Covid pandemic disrupted supply chains and labor markets, with heterogeneous effects on demand and supply across industries. Meanwhile governments responded with unprecedented stimulus packages, and inflation increased to its highest values in 40 years. In this paper I investigate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512048
The high social costs of financial crises imply that economists, policymakers, businesses, and households have a tremendous incentive to understand, and try to prevent them. And yet, so far we have failed to learn how to avoid them. In this article, we take a novel approach to studying financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512067
Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940-2014, we document the following evidence that corporate debt plays a key role in explaining boom-bust cycles, financial crises, and slow macroeconomic recoveries:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512079