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u* = √uv
Michaillat, Pascal; Saez, Emmanuel - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Most governments are mandated to maintain their economies at full employment. We propose that the best marker of full employment is the efficient unemployment rate, u*. We define u* as the unemployment rate that minimizes the nonproductive use of labor--both jobseeking and recruiting. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334429
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Bonus Question : Does Flexible Incentive Pay Dampen Unemployment Dynamics?
Gaur, Meghana; Grigsby, John R.; Hazell, Jonathon; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
procyclical wages, matches unemployment dynamics in our incentive pay model calibrated to strongly procyclical wages …-order equivalent in an economy with flexible incentive pay and without bargaining, vis-á-vis an economy with rigid wages. Second, wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372479
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Does Occupational Licensing Reduce Job Loss During Recessions?
Blair, Peter Q.; Chung, Bobby W. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Licensed workers could be shielded from unemployment during recession since occupational licensing laws are asymmetric--making unlicensed workers an illegal substitute for licensed workers but not the reverse. We test our hypothesis using a difference-in-differences event study research design...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544764
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The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment : Predictability, Heterogeneity and Selection
Müller, Andreas; Spinnewijn, Johannes - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226176
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When Institutions Interact : How the Effects of Unemployment Insurance are Shaped by Retirement Policies
Gudgeon, Matthew; Guzman, Pablo; Schmieder, Johannes; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper shows empirically that the non-employment effects of unemployment insurance (UI) for older workers depend in a first-order way on the structure of retirement policies. Using German data, we first present reduced-form evidence of these interactions, documenting large bunching in UI...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421233
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Updating about Yourself by Learning about the Market : The Dynamics of Beliefs and Expectations in Job Search
He, Qiwei; Kircher, Philipp - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This study documents how job seekers update perceived job-finding prospects by unemployment duration and by learning about aggregate unemployment. We find that job seekers perceive an 18% decline in their job-finding probability for each additional month of unemployment, but perceive a higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447261
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Disemployment Effects of Unemployment Insurance : A Meta-Analysis
Cohen, Jonathan P.; Ganong, Peter - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We systematically review studies of how unemployment benefits affect unemployment duration. Statistically significant findings are eleven times more likely to be published. Correcting for publication bias halves the average elasticity. Meta-analysis provides a principled way for sufficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056158
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Moral Hazard and Unemployment in Competitive Equilibrium
Rey, Patrick; Stiglitz, Joseph E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
construct a general equilibrium model where workers' reservation wages and the maximum punishment acceptable before workers quit … an adverse signal, and establishing conditions under which equilibrium entails lowering wages (performance contracting …-strategy equilibrium. The economy is, in general, not efficient either in the selection of the form of equilibrium or the wages paid within …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635663
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The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes : Evidence and Theory
Bai, Xiwen; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Li, Yiliang; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study the causal effects and policy implications of global supply chain disruptions. We construct a new index of supply chain disruptions from the mandatory automatic identification system data of container ships, developing a novel spatial clustering algorithm that determines real-time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486190
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The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment during Cyclical Recoveries
Hall, Robert Ernest; Kudlyak, Marianna - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436979