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Political Risk Versus Market Risk in Social Security

Shoven, John B. - 2006

risk. This study develops the concept of "political risk" as the possibility that some future legislature will be forced to … and macroeconomic variables that support it. Thus there is a "political risk" to participants that might be compared to … the "market risk" in a personal accounts retirement scheme. In this paper, we carry out a detailed quantitative analysis …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466520

The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012496179

International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth

Carroll, Christopher D. - 2008

We estimate the degree of 'stickiness' in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464771

Peer Effects in European Primary Schools : Evidence from PIRLS

Ammermueller, Andreas - 2006

We estimate peer effects for fourth graders in six European countries. The identification relies on variation across classes within schools. We argue that classes within primary schools are formed roughly randomly with respect to family background. Similar to previous studies, we find sizeable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466488

Stock Return Predictability : Is it There?

Ang, Andrew - 2001

We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the … earnings growth, payout ratios and the short rate as state variables. We use this model imposing a constant risk premium to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470517

Implied Exchange Rate Distributions : Evidence from OTC Option Markets

Campa, Jose M. - 1997

the entire risk-neutral probability density function (pdf) over horizons of one and three months. We compare three … consistent with target zones with endogenous realignment risk. We discuss two interpretations of our results on skewness: when a … currency is stronger, the actual probability of further large appreciation is higher, or because of risk, such states are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472635

Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in History?

Collins, William J. - 1997

Trade theorists have come to understand that their theory is ambiguous on the question: Are trade and factor flows substitutes? While this sounds like an open invitation for empirical research, hardly any serious econometric work has appeared in the literature. This paper uses history to fill...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472755

Sources of Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century

Taylor, Alan M. - 1996

Although the empirical growth literature has yielded many findings on postwar convergence patterns, it has had little to say about the determinants of convergence in earlier epochs. This paper investigates convergence for group of seven countries during the period 1870-1914, the last great phase...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473027

Central Bank Credibility : An Historical and Quantitative Exploration

Bordo, Michael D. - 2015

mean reversion properties of inflation, and indicators of exchange rate risk. In addition we place some emphasis on whether …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457842

Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective

Bordo, Michael - 2014

This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457973

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