We analyse the results of a laboratory experiment on expectation formation. Participants were asked to predict prices in an artificial single-good economy, and were paid according to their forecasting accuracy. Thirteen markets, with six subjects each, were created, in two different treatments....

Various Computational Intelligence (CI) tools have been devised to depict the essential learning or adapting processes people adopt when they are making decisions. If the learning process people possess is indeed well described by some CI algorithms, then there arise an interesting question:...

Within the context of an agent-based model, model selection by the economic agents is introduced and investigated. To achieve this, a specific agent, the “economic research instituteâ€, is set up and produces regular forecasts of the economy which are published to the economic agents....

The article contributes to a broader understanding of how firms form its opinion in regular business surveys as we identify determinants of this process. In a large micro panel data set from the Ifo Business Cycle Test in Germany we employ the log-probability model to investigate relationships...

The paper recognizes that expectations and the process of their formation are subject to standard decision making and are determined as a part of equilibrium. Accordingly, the paper presents a basic framework in which the form of expectation formation is a choice variable. At any point in time...

This paper studies the formulation of monetary policy in a changing environment when knowledge regarding some aspects of the structure of the economy is imperfect and an adaptive learning technology is available to the policymaker and economic agents. As a benchmark, we develop a simple model of...