This paper presents a new mechanism through which monetary policy rules affect inflation persistence. When assuming that price reset hazard functions are not constant, backward- looking dynamics emerge in the NKPC. This new mechanism makes the traditional demand channel of monetary transmission...

This paper explores implications of nominal rigidity characterized by a non-constant hazard function for aggregate dynamics. I derive the NKPC under an arbitrary hazard function and parameterize it with the Weibull duration model. The resulting Phillips curve involves lagged inflation and lagged...

This paper uses the Bayesian approach to solve and estimate a New Keynesian model augmented by a generalized Phillips curve, in which the shape of the price reset hazards can be identi…ed using aggregate data. My empirical result shows that a constant hazard function is easily rejected by the...

Whelan (2007) found that the generalized Calvo-sticky-price model fails to replicate a typical feature of the empirical reduced-form Phillips curve - the positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. In this paper, I show that it is the 4-period-Taylor-contract hazard function he chose that...

We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating timevarying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data-driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time....

A flexible statistical approach for the analysis of time-varying dynamics of transaction data on financial markets is here applied to intra-day trading strategies. A local adaptive technique is used to successfully predict financial time series, i.e., the buyer and the seller-initiated trading...

Using a local adaptive Forward Intensities Approach (FIA) we investigate multiperiod corporate defaults and other delisting schemes. The proposed approach is fully datadriven and is based on local adaptive estimation and the selection of optimal estimation windows. Time-dependent model...

Based on administrative data from the federal employment office in Germany, we apply matching techniques to estimate the stepping-stone function of temporary agency work for the unemployed, i.e. its short-run and long-run effects on their future employment prospects. Our results show that...

In this paper, we give an overview of the state-of-the-art in the econometric literature on the modeling of so-called financial point processes. The latter are associated with the random arrival of specific financial trading events, such as transactions, quote updates, limit orders or price...

In general, consumer preferences depend on the context of a decision situation. This paper highlights the context-dependence of substitution behavior in out-of-stock (OOS) situations and provides evidence for the relevance of promotion as essential driver of customers' OOS reactions. We...