Based on administrative data from the federal employment office in Germany, we apply matching techniques to estimate the stepping-stone function of temporary agency work for the unemployed, i.e. its short-run and long-run effects on their future employment prospects. Our results show that...

We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating timevarying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data-driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time....

In this paper, we give an overview of the state-of-the-art in the econometric literature on the modeling of so-called financial point processes. The latter are associated with the random arrival of specific financial trading events, such as transactions, quote updates, limit orders or price...

A flexible statistical approach for the analysis of time-varying dynamics of transaction data on financial markets is here applied to intra-day trading strategies. A local adaptive technique is used to successfully predict financial time series, i.e., the buyer and the seller-initiated trading...

Using a local adaptive Forward Intensities Approach (FIA) we investigate multiperiod corporate defaults and other delisting schemes. The proposed approach is fully datadriven and is based on local adaptive estimation and the selection of optimal estimation windows. Time-dependent model...

The distribution of treatment eects extends the prevailing focus on average treatment eects to the tails of the outcome variable and quantile treatment eects denote the predominant technique to compute those eects in the presence of a confounding mechanism. The underlying quantile regression is...

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of labour market dynamics in Western Germany by looking at gross worker flows. To do so, we use a subsample of the registry data collected by the German social security system, the IAB employment sample, for the time period 1975-2001. The latter...

Using two data sets derived from German administrative data, including a linked employer-employee data set, we investigate the cyclicality of worker and job flows. The analysis stresses the importance of two-sided labour market heterogeneity in this context, taking into account both observed and...

This paper proposes a spatial panel model for German matching functions to avoid possibly biased and inefficient estimates due to spatial dependence. We provide empirical evidence for the presence of spatial dependencies in matching data. Based on an official data set containing monthly...

This paper studies the interaction of financing constraints and labor market imperfections on the labor market and economic activity. My analysis builds on the agency cost framework of Carlstrom and Fuerst [1998. Agency costs and business cycles. Economic Theory, 12(3):583-597]. The aim of this...