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Out-of-sample Comparison of Copula Specifications in Multivariate Density Forecasts

Diks, Cees; Panchenko, Valentyn; Dijk, Dick van - Tinbergen Institute

We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144392

An Hourly Periodic State Space Model for Modelling French National Electricity Load

Dordonnat, V.; Koopman, S.J.; Ooms, M.; Dessertaine, A.; … - Tinbergen Institute - 2008

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are … implementation of our forecasting procedure relies on the multivariate linear Gaussian state space framework and is applied to … national French hourly electricity load. The analysis focuses on two hours, 9 AM and 12 AM, but forecasting results are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144435

Backtesting Value-at-Risk using Forecasts for Multiple Horizons, a Comment on the Forecast Rationality Tests of A.J. Patton and A. Timmermann

Hoogerheide, Lennart F.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Dijk, … - Tinbergen Institute - 2011

Patton and Timmermann (2011, 'Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds', <I>Journal of Business & Economic Statistics</I>, forthcoming) propose a set of useful tests for forecast rationality or optimality under squared error loss, including an easily implemented test based on a...</i>

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322510

Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails

Diks, Cees; Panchenko, Valentyn; Dijk, Dick van - Tinbergen Institute - 2008

We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137187

The Power of Weather: Some Empirical Evidence on Predicting Day-ahead Power Prices through Day-ahead Weather Forecasts

Huurman, Christian; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Zhou, Chen - Tinbergen Institute - 2007

wholesale power markets have only recently been deregulated. We introduce the weather factor into well-known forecasting models …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504905

An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models

Hauwe, Sjoerd van den; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick J.C. van - Tinbergen Institute - 2011

We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838634

Growth and Inequality: A Meta-Analysis

Dominicis, Laura de; Groot, Henri L.F. de; Florax, … - Tinbergen Institute - 2006

In recent years there has been a growing interest in the impact of inequality on economic growth. Both theoretical and empirical approaches have produced ambiguous results on sign and size of this relationship. Although there is a considerable part of the literature that considers inequality...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209497

To Bridge, to Warp or to Wrap? A Comparative Study of Monte Carlo Methods for Efficient Evaluation of Marginal Likelihoods

Ardia, David; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Dijk, Herman K. van - Tinbergen Institute - 2009

Important choices for efficient and accurate evaluation of marginal likelihoods by means of Monte Carlo simulation methods are studied for the case of highly non-elliptical posterior distributions. We focus on the situation where one makes use of importance sampling or the independence chain...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016276

Outlier Detection in GARCH Models

Doornik, Jurgen A.; Ooms, Marius - Tinbergen Institute - 2005

We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier candidates are the observations with the largest standardized residual. First, a likelihood-ratio based test determines the presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144394

A Meta-Analysis of Beta-Convergence: The Legendary Two-Percent

Abreu, Maria; Groot, Henri L.F. de; Florax, Raymond J.G.M. - Tinbergen Institute - 2005

The topic of convergence is at the heart of a wide-ranging debate in the growth literature. Empirical studies of convergence differ widely in their theoretical backgrounds, empirical specifications and in their treatment of cross-sectional heterogeneity. Despite these differences, a rate of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144527