This paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that only...

Although the main interest in the modelling of electricity prices is often on volatility aspects, we argue that stochastic heteroskedastic behaviour in prices can only be modelled correctly when the conditional mean of the time series is properly modelled. In this paper we consider different...

In this article we develop an Instrumental Variable estimation procedure that corrects for possible endogeneity of a variable in a duration model. We assume a Generalized Accelerated Failure Time (GAFT) model. This model is based on transforming the durations and assuming a distribution for...

Socio-economic interrelationships among regions can be measured in terms of economic flows, migration, or physical geographically-based measures, such as distance or length of shared areal unit boundaries. In general, proximity and openness tend to favour a similar economic performance among...

Knowledge triggers regional growth. Evidence suggests that skilled labour force concentrates in islands of innovation, determining an advantage for innovative regions and a challenge for lagging ones. We address the role of knowledge in shaping effective markets for skilled labour. Estimates are...

There is a growing interest, notably in development economics, in extending project evaluation methods to the evaluation of multiple interventions (“programs”). In program evaluations one is interested in the aggregate impact of a program rather than the effect on individual beneficiaries....

In this paper I analyse the use and compensation of fixed-term and on-call employment contracts in the Netherlands. I use an analytical framework in which wage differentials result from two types of uncertainty. Quantity uncertainty originates from imperfect foresight in future product demand. I...

In this paper we employ techniques developed in spatial econometrics to analyse spatial patterns of technology diffusion, to detect clusters and to estimate theoretical models that incorporate space explicitly. These techniques correct for misspecifications resulting from the omission of spatial...

In this paper we determine the effect of transport cost on commuting flows, on the basis of an analysis of home-to-work journeys between municipalities in Denmark. Special attention is given to a proper estimation method and the form of the distance-decay function. It appears that neither an...

Because of heterogeneity across regions, economic policy measures are increasingly targeted at the regional level. As a result, the need for economic forecasts at a sub-national level is rapidly increasing. The data available to compute regional forecasts is usually based on a pseudo-panel that...