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"Haircuts" for the EMU Periphery: Virtue or Vice?

Neck, Reinhard; Blüschke, Dmitri - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2013

We use a dynamic game model of a two-country monetary union to study the impacts of an exogenous fall in aggregate demand, the resulting increase in public debt, and the consequences of a sovereign debt haircut for a member country or bloc of the union. In this union, the governments of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986065

Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe

Schnabl, Gunther; Wollmershäuser, Timo - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2013

Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System diverging current account positions in Europe have prevailed. While the Southern and Western European countries have tended to run current account deficits, the current accounts of the Central and Northern European countries, in particular Germany,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010985997

The German Public and its Trust in the ECB: The Role of Knowledge and Information Search

Neuenkirch, Edith; Hayo, Bernd - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2014

In this paper, we analyse the effects of objective and subjective knowledge about monetary policy, as well as the information search patterns, of German citizens on trust in the ECB. We rely on a unique representative public opinion survey of German households conducted in 2011. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163915

Forward Guidance in a Simple Model with a Zero Lower Bound

Illing, Gerhard; Siemsen, Thomas - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2014

role of long-run and short-run price stickiness under discretion and commitment in a straightforward and intuitive way …. Despite the impact of price rigidity on welfare being non-linear, losses under discretion are lowest with perfectly flexible … when a commitment to hold nominal rates at zero for an extended period is optimal. We then introduce government spending …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163926

How Large Is the Stress from the Common Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?

Quint, Dominic - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2014

The ECB's one size monetary policy is unlikely to fit all euro area members, which raises a discussion about how much monetary policy stress this causes at the national level. We measure monetary policy stress as the difference between actual ECB interest rates and Taylor-rule implied optimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011164068

Superstar Central Bankers

Neuenkirch, Matthias; Tillmann, Peter - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2014

The personalities of central bankers moved center stage during the recent financial crisis. Some central bankers even gained "superstar" status. In this paper, we evaluate the pivotal role of superstar central bankers by assessing the difference an outstanding governor makes to economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011164178

Taylor rule cross-checking and selective monetary policy adjustment

Roth, Markus; Bursian, Dirk - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2012

The Taylor rule is a widely used concept in monetary macroeconomics and has been used in various areas either for positive or normative analyses. We examine whether the robustifying nature of Taylor rule cross-checking in the spirit of R island and Sveen (2011) also carries over to the case of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955224

Real effects of Quantitative Easing at the Zero-Lower Bound: Structural VAR-based evidence from Japan

Watzka, Sebastian; Schenkelberg, Heike - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2011

Using monthly post-1995 Japanese data we propose a new sign-restriction based approach to identify monetary policy shocks when the economy is at the zero-lower bound (ZLB). The identifying restrictions are thoroughly grounded in liquidity trap theory. Our results show that a quantitative easing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957269

How Stale Central Bank Interest Rate Projections Affect Interest Rate Uncertainty

Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra; Nautz, Dieter - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2013

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand guides interest rate expectations of financial markets by projections of future short-term rates that are updated only once a quarter. As a consequence, projections become stale when time evolves and new information enters the market. This paper investigates the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957924

Government Forecasts of Budget Balances Under Asymmetric Loss: International Evidence

Rülke, Jan-Christoph; Pierdzioch, Christian - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS - 2014

We study the loss function of 15 European governments as implied by their budget balance forecasts. Results suggest that the shape of the loss function varies across countries. The loss function becomes more asymmetric as the forecast horizon increases and in advance of parliamentary election....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011212425