The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposedforecast encompassing....

This study uses corn yield data from McLean County, Illinois to test whether farmer skill influences yields. This analysis is conducted by performing persistency tests on unadjusted, soil productivity adjusted (PA), and productivity and input intensity adjusted (PIA) yields. Correlation analysis...

This study examines whether market participants anticipate the predictable component in USDA revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts during 1970/71 through 2003/04 marketing years. The analysis revealed that markets consistently under-predicted October corn production revisions and...

The cost of forward contracting corn is estimated with weekly pre-harvest forward bases for seven regions of Illinois from 1975 to 2002. Given the panel structure of the forward basis dataset, we extend Townsend and Brorsen's univariate unit root model for forward bases to a panel unit root...

To date, there is only fragmented and anecdotal information about the impact of the recommendations of market advisory services (MAS) on producers' decision-making. A conceptual framework is developed in which, among others, producers' risk attitudes and risk perceptions; producers' perceptions...