The authors show that the interest rate on Federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables. Then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves; that is, the...

This paper employs monthly, industry-level data in a study of Depression-era labor markets. As in Robert Lucas (1970), the model usedhere assumes that employers can vary total labor input not only by changing the number of workers but also by changing the length of thework week. (This assumption...