We evaluate how non-normality of asset returns and the temporal evolution of volatility and higher moments affects the conditional allocation of wealth. We show that if one neglects these aspects, as would be the case in a mean-variance allocation, a significant cost would arise. The performance...

In this paper, we extend the concept of News Impact Curve developed by Engle and Ng (1993) to the higher moments of the multivariate returns' distribution, thereby providing a tool to investigate the impact of shocks on the characteristics of the subsequent distribution. For this purpose, we...

We investigate the consequences for value-at-risk and expected shortfall purposes of using a GARCH filter on various mis-specified processes. In general, we find that the McNeil and Frey (2000) two step procedure has very good forecasting properties. Using an unconditional non filtered tail...

Starting in 1995, we follow for three years the 120 most important companies listed on the paris Bourse and examine the link between stock trading characteristics and different measures of earnings' surprises during annual and semi-annual public disclosures. After a short discussion of market...

Estimating a forward-looking monetary policy rule by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) has become a popular approach since the influential paper by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (1998). However , an abundant econometric literature underlines to the unappealing small- samples properties of GMM...

Many macroeconomic models (including the NKPC - "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve) involve hybrid equations, in which some variables depend on both their lags and leads. Hybrid models have produced conflicting empirical results: GMM (respectively ML) estimation find the forward- looking component...

This paper focuses on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure on long-term government bonds. Adopting the approach proposed by Campbell and Shiller [1991], we obtain ambiguous results, similar to the puzzle highlighted by these authors with US data. Analyzing stationarity of excess...

We propose a definition and a characterization of long-run causality between non-stationary, possibly cointegrated, series. In a VAR framework, a Wald test can be performed to test for long-run non-causality, with the statistics distributed as a chi-square, conditionally on the cointegration...

We estimate two small macroeconomic models with forward-looking components, for the US and Germany. The models, which include a Phillips curve, an I-S curve and a monetary policy rule, are estimated using the full-information maximum-likelihood procedure. They are shown to have some robustness...

Many macroeconomic models (including the NKPC - "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve) involve hybrid equations, in which some variables depend on both their lags and leads. Hybrid models have produced conflicting empirical results: GMM (respectively ML) estimation find the forward- looking component...