The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) posits the dynamics of inflation as forward looking and related to marginal costs.In this paper we examine the empirical relevance of the NKPC for mainland China.The empirical results indicate that an augmented (hybrid) NKPC gives results that are...

With recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, inflation emerged as a major concern for many central banks in emerging Asia. We use data observed at mixed frequencies to estimate the movement of Chinese headline inflation within the framework of a state-space model, and then...

​Persistent producer price deflation in China and other Asian economies has become a genuine concern for policymakers. In June 2016, China's producer prices were down 12.7 percent from their peak in 2011, following a 52-month stretch of consecutive negative producer price readings (March 2012...

The recent increase in China's house prices at the national level masks tremendous variation at the city level – a feature largely overlooked in the macroprudential literature. This paper considers the evolving heterogeneity in China's house price dynamics across 70 cities and assess the main...

The structural rate of unemployment and associated non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU) are of major importance to the analysis of macro and structural economic developments, although in practice these concepts are not well defined and there is considerable uncertainty and...

This paper uses a variety of empirical methods to examine the apparent differences in monetary policy stances as between the United States and other G7 economies, notably those in the euro area, during the period of sharp increases in oil and other commodity prices in the first half of 2008. In...

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...

With recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, inflation emerged as a major concern for many central banks in emerging Asia. We use data observed at mixed frequencies to estimate the movement of Chinese headline inflation within the framework of a state-space model, and then...

This paper uses a variety of empirical methods to examine the apparent differences in monetary policy stances as between the United States and other G7 economies, notably those in the euro area, during the period of sharp increases in oil and other commodity prices in the first half of 2008. In...

The structural rate of unemployment and associated non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU) are of major importance to the analysis of macro and structural economic developments, although in practice these concepts are not well defined and there is considerable uncertainty and...